Ebba Neille

Predictions For 2024 Presidential Race. Presidential candidates, polls, primaries and caucuses, voter information and results for november 5, 2024 Below, lighter lines show data from past.

Developed with the assistance of a team of political scientists led by andrew gelman of columbia university, our model calculates kamala harris’s and donald trump’s probabilities of winning each. Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll’s recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.